Mike Palm shared a good general rule to have before placing bets on NFL games: Don’t lay more than a field goal for divisional games.
“Division games are very tricky, I just have to tell you,” says Palm, the vice president of operations at the Circa in Las Vegas. “Playing a team two or three times a year evens out a lot.”
Following Palm’s rule will test many bettors in Week 10 because five of the six divisional games have a spread higher than three points. Only Jaguars (-1.5) at Texans qualifies as a divisional-game favorite to bet on if we’re sticking to the rules (more on that game later).
Here are the other divisional games: Broncos (-9.5) vs. Raiders, Panthers (-5.5) vs. Saints, Bills (-9.5) at Dolphins, Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Cardinals, and Rams (-4.5) at 49ers.
Obviously, not every bettor will have restraint because laying the points with Denver against a struggling Las Vegas team will be very appealing before kick off on Thursday night.
“I don’t know what signs there are to tell you to back the Raiders here other than the number,” Palm says. “Typically, it’s a tough week for the road team on a Thursday night.”
Personally, I will follow the rule here and stay away from Broncos-Raiders, Bills-Dolphins and even Panthers-Saints. Carolina, however, could be a trendy pick for the remaining contestants in Circa’s popular survivor contests. The $1,000 buy-in has 1,769 entries remaining. The $100,000 buy-in Grandissimo contest has only 11 remaining in Week 10.
I do like taking the points with the Cardinals, who have played better since Jacoby Brissett took over for Kyler Murray, and the 49ers, who beat the Rams on the road in Week 5. And it helps that last week’s lone divisional game saw the Vikings beat the Lions as 9.5-point road underdogs.
With more insight from Palm, here’s everything you need to know betting wise about NFL Week 10.
Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 10
Surprisingly, the sharps are riding with Davis Mills and the Texans for Sunday’s matchup against the Jaguars, according to Palm.
Last week, Houston was a 2.5-point favorite before it flipped to Jacksonville due to the injury to C.J. Stroud, who sustained a concussion vs. Denver. The Jaguars beat the Raiders last week, but this team could struggle against the Texans’ stout defense.
“I think the public still thinks this Jaguars team is still decent,” Palm says. “I don’t, though.”
Odds Movement NFL Week 10
The odds were all over the place this week partly because of the moves that occurred during Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline.
The Jets started the week as 2.5-point home favorites against the Browns, but they then traded Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. Now it’s Cleveland that’s laying the 2.5 points.
“Obviously, the money came in after the trades,” Palm says. “It’s hard for me to play the Browns. I really like their defense, but they’re just so awful offensively and they haven’t found a quarterback. … I just try to stay away from their games.”
The Colts went from laying 5.5 to 6.5 points for Sunday’s Germany game against the Falcons, but that wasn’t necessarily about the Gardner trade. Palm mentioned that bettors are expecting Indianapolis to bounce back after an ugly loss in Pittsburgh.
The spread for Lions-Commanders drastically jumped compared to last week’s look-ahead line, which had Detroit laying three points in Washington. But the Jayden Daniels injury made the line jump to Detroit -9. It’s now down to -8.
Biggest Liabilities NFL Week 10
Palm will keep a close eye on Panthers vs. Saints because he’s expecting that to be the biggest liability game of the week.
Carolina is surging with Rico Dowdle as the lead back, beating Green Bay and winning four out of the past five games. New Orleans appears to have checked out after losing by more than 10 points in each of its past three games, including 34–10 in Los Angeles last week. Additionally, the Saints got worse after trading wide receiver Rashid Shaheed to the Seahawks.
Broncos vs. Raiders and Bills vs. Dolphins could also be liability games. But if we’re following Palm’s rule of not laying more than a field goal in divisional games, maybe it’s best to avoid these three games because it’s tough seeing one of these dogs covering this week. Then again, Raiders fans could support the home team at the ticket counter before kick off.
Manzano’s NFL Week 10 Betting Tips
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Buck the trend: Eagles (+2.5) at Packers
The trend of the Packers being the betting favorite in every game needs to stop. They’re 3–5 against the spread this year and somehow they’re the favorites against the Eagles, who are coming off a bye week.
Yes, Green Bay is at home, but this should have been its first game as an underdog. I’m taking Philly as a rare dog here.
“I love the Eagles here,” Palm says. “I think this should be a pick’em at best. The Eagles are off a bye. I think that’s a huge factor. The Packers played a Sunday night game [in Pittsburgh] and came home and weren’t ready to play against Carolina and let that game get away from them.”
Palm is expecting this line to drop to Packers -1 by kick off Monday.
Enticing Bet: Vikings (+4.5) vs. Ravens
The Vikings came through for me last week in Detroit. I’ll take the points again, especially because of the improvements J.J. McCarthy showed in his first game back in more than a month.
Baltimore crushed Miami last week, but struggled in the first half. The Ravens aren’t all the way back.
Moneyline Dog: Steelers (+130) at Chargers
I do not trust this Chargers’ offensive line that just lost Joe Alt to hold up against T.J. Watt and the rest of the Steelers’ defensive front.
SuperDog: Cardinals (+6.5) at Seahawks
The Cardinals are better offensively with Brissett and the defense gained a spark from rookie defensive tackle Walter Nolen III during his debut in last week’s victory over the Cowboys. Arizona will keep it close in Seattle.
Not So Risky: Lions (-7.5) at Commanders
I’ll take the angry Lions to bounce back against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year. They won’t let up just because the Commanders are banged up, which was the case for the Lions in the postseason.
Stay Away: Browns (-2.5) at Jets
I want no part of this game. The Jets have nobody on defense and the Browns don’t know how to find the end zone. Stay away, very far away.
Parlay: Texans (+1.5) vs. Jaguars; Cardinals (+6.5) at Seahawks; 49ers (+4.5) vs. Rams
I’m sticking with Palm’s divisional matchup betting rule. I found three dogs to support from the six divisional games this week.
Favorite Fave: Colts (-6.5) vs. Falcons
I like the Colts to bounce back against the inconsistent Falcons. But I’d feel better if this game was actually in Indy and not in Berlin.
Best Over/Under Total: Steelers-Chargers (over 45.5, -112)
Justin Herbert will likely get hit several times, but he’ll have his moments against Pittsburgh’s suspect secondary. Aaron Rodgers can also have success vs. a struggling Chargers defense.
