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From Dan Vachalek (@Dyhard):
Dan, this is a great question.
I understand the Las Vegas Raiders wanting a second-rounder, plus additional compensation for Davante Adams—it was the price the San Francisco 49ers had on Brandon Aiyuk. The problem is, for the Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots, Aiyuk was the sort of player you could build a receiver group around for the next half-decade, and he's only 26 years old. He has played in three NFC title games and a Super Bowl, and his contract wasn’t outrageous.
Adams, on the other hand, turns 32 in December. He’s a bigger-bodied guy who has started 146 games over a 10-plus-year career. I love——him as a player. But I’d be surprised if anyone meets the Aiyuk price (four years, $120 million, including $76 million guaranteed).
With that in mind, the two comps for Adams would be Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen.
Allen is eight months older than Adams. He went for more catches and yards (108/1,243) than Adams 103/1,144) last year. He’s in a contract year (Adams basically is, too, with the way his contract is structured). Allen was traded in March from the Chargers to the Bears for a fourth-round pick.
Diggs is 11 months younger than Adams. He had more catches and yards (107/1,188), and as many touchdowns (eight) as Adams last year. As part of the trade, he wound up with just a year left on his deal. He was traded in April, along with a 2024 sixth-rounder and a ’25 fifth-rounder for a ’25 second-rounder. So that’s around the value of a third-rounder, when you factor the givebacks, and the fact that the second round choice was a year out into the equation.
So I’d say the Raiders can probably get a third-rounder for Adams, with some teams involved just going fishing in offering a fourth.
