There was a big deal made about the Patriots and Steelers having a betting total line of 30 points last week, one of the lowest in years.
The two subpar offenses easily went over the total in the first half, but only eight points were scored in the second half before the Patriots won, 21–18.
The oddsmakers might have learned their lesson about posting a total line that low. (The Jets and Texans also covered the over on 33.5 points after New York’s 30–6 win.) For Week 15, the lowest total line as of Thursday, is 33.5 between the Panthers and Falcons, according to SI Sportsbook.
I really wanted to see a total line under 30 points this week because of the 3–0 stinker between the Vikings and Raiders. Both teams were scoreless before the Vikings’ go-ahead field goal with 1:57 left in regulation.
After seven games ended with 46 points or more last week, I’m going to slightly favor the over for this week’s slate of games. Here are the five best over/under bets for Week 15 (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).
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1. Broncos (7–6) at Lions (9–4)Over/Under: 47.5Prediction: Under
I’ve mentioned this before, but I still can’t believe how the Broncos went from an historically bad defense to a standout unit in a two-month span. It certainly helps that Denver has a league-high 24 takeaways, but Vance Joseph’s crew is also limiting yards and points allowed. In the past seven games, the Broncos averaged 15.5 points allowed per game, including last week’s 24–7 win against the Chargers. The Broncos also haven’t allowed an opponent to gain 400 yards in a game since Week 5. Denver has a tough challenge in Detroit, but this defense has already stifled Green Bay, Buffalo, Kansas City and Cleveland during this midseason turnaround. Also, the Lions’ offense has struggled in recent weeks. They’re coming off their worst offensive performance of the season after being held to a season-low 267 yards in the 28–13 loss to the Bears. The Lions are also known for allowing many points, but Russell Wilson & Co. aren’t known for lighting up the scoreboard.
2. Buccaneers (6–7) at Packers (6–7)Over/Under: 41.5Prediction: Over
The Baker Mayfield experience in Tampa Bay has been a rollercoaster, nothing surprising there based on how Mayfield performed with the Browns, Panthers and Rams. But it’s been good enough to have the Buccaneers atop the NFC South standings heading into Week 15. You never know when the lows will occur for a Mayfield-led offense, but here’s hoping for one more surge before a drop off. In the past three games, the Buccaneers scored 20 vs. the Colts, 21 vs. the Panthers and 29 vs. the Falcons. I’m not expecting the Buccaneers to drop 30 points at Lambeau Field, but they’re good enough for 20-plus points against an inconsistent Packers’ defense. The Jordan Love-led Packers have also been inconsistent offensively, but they’ve scored 22 points or more in four consecutive games. Love is surrounded by young players, but the group of pass-catchers has shown plenty of promise this season, including Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft and Dontayvion Wicks.
3. Chiefs (8–5) at Patriots (3–10)
Eventually, the Chiefs’ offense has to wake up, right? Perhaps I’ll count out Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the rest of the Chiefs if they deliver another offensive dud against the struggling Patriots, although New England’s defense has been solid most of the season. But the Chiefs need a get-right game after back-to-back frustrating losses to the Packers and Bills. Dropping 30-plus points against a three-win team seems like the right opportunity for Mahomes to make things right and silence the alarms in Kansas City. I’m also optimistic about this over bet because of what Bailey Zappe did to the Steelers’ defense during a 21–18 win last week. Zappe made impressive throws to JuJu Smith-Schuster and Ezekiel Elliott turned back the clock with 140 total yards.
4. Commanders (4–9) at Rams (6–7)Over/Under: 49.5Prediction: Over
The Rams have scored 30-plus points in three consecutive games and the Commanders have allowed 30-plus points in three consecutive games. Washington has also allowed 45 points in back-to-back games. Don’t expect the Commanders to come out of their bye week with a new and improved defense. They’re allowing 30.4 points per game and 266 passing yards per game—both rank dead last in the NFL. Matthew Stafford and his many weapons should feast on a defense that has struggled to generate pressure since trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Sam Howell and the Commanders’ offense could struggle against an underrated L.A. defense. But the Rams did allow 37 points to the Ravens last week. Washington is averaging 20 points per game and usually finds a way to at least score in garbage time.
5. Cowboys (10–3) at Bills (7–6)Over/Under: 50.5Prediction: Under
The Cowboys average a league-high 32.4 points per game, but their offensive numbers tend to dip on the road. Dallas will also have to deal with the cold-weather conditions in Buffalo. But I do have concerns about Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb shredding a thin Buffalo defense. Cowboys running back Tony Pollard could also have a productive outing, with the Bills allowing 114 rushing yards per game. But with a high total line, this under bet can afford a few touchdowns for this interconference showdown. Also, Josh Allen will have a daunting challenge against a standout Cowboys’ defense that held Jalen Hurts and his Eagles’ offense to six points last week. The Bills were held to 20 points in last week’s win against the Chiefs.
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