It’s time to put a bow on our season-long exercise of NFL Power Rankings. After looking back at Week 1, it feels good to say that the only teams we really and truly whiffed on were the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys (too high), and the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders (way, way too low). Dallas and San Francisco were derailed by injuries while Minnesota and Washington are two great examples of how quickly fortunes can turn around with good coaching and a steady hand at the quarterback position.
While we will have the ultimate answer in a matter of weeks now, this is how I see the teams in terms of best to worst heading into the playoffs. For teams No. 16 and beyond, this is really an exercise in both how you finished and how quickly you can bounce back into relevance. As usual this time of year, we’re still figuring out what on earth Jerry Jones is doing. He, similarly, is trying to figure out how he can maximize the attention on—and reaction to—whatever decision he makes at the head coaching position. The inference is that the grass is not greener on the other side of the fence, but how fun might it be to cosplay as an attention starved owner for just one day?
Anyway, let’s get to it. I hope you enjoyed a Monday without Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. I used the time to read three books (all of them from the series).
1. Detroit Lions (15–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Last week’s result: beat Minnesota, 31–9
This week: bye
My preseason Super Bowl favorite Lions are now on a bye week to start the playoffs. The season-ending win over the Vikings was both a schematic victory and the showcasing of full team depth from Detroit. It’s funny how player empowerment and a culture of development brings out the best in your backups in a big spot.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (15–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Last week’s result: lost to Denver, 38–0
This week: bye
The clock has reset, and now Andy Reid has another week to observe before inheriting his first opponent of the postseason. I can talk big noise all year about how this team has statistically underperformed and has had incredibly good fortune in tight games, but it doesn’t matter. I am not picking against them this postseason.
3. Buffalo Bills (13–4)
Last week’s ranking: No. 1
Last week’s result: lost to New England, 23–16
This week: vs. Denver
Below freezing with possible snow showers for Sunday. I complain about NFL football sometimes but there is an enduring beauty in typing those words. I will forever appreciate Buffalo being relevant with home field this time of year, if only for the aesthetic.
Last week’s ranking: No. 4
Last week’s result: lost to Detroit, 31–9
This week: at Los Angeles Rams
I didn’t see a blowout like many others did Sunday. I saw a Lions team that got the proper bounces and, just maybe, a less critical eye from the officiating crew when it came to a feisty secondary. There’s nothing wrong with a little hand-to-hand combat, but the Lions knew they were at the mercy of the referees. I agree with Dan Campbell that we’ll see these teams again in a few weeks.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (14–3)
Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Last week’s result: beat New York Giants, 20–13
This week: vs. Green Bay
Christian Watson’s season-ending injury doesn’t directly inflate my confidence in Philadelphia the way some other injuries might. But it does inflate my confidence in Vic Fangio’s ability to put an umbrella over this offense with one less playmaker to complicate life in the defensive backfield. Green Bay has overwhelmed opponents with receiver depth all year but will miss the threat of certain routes Sunday.
6. Baltimore Ravens (12–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 6
Last week’s result: beat Cleveland, 35–10
This week: vs. Pittsburgh
Zay Flowers’s availability complicates my confidence in Baltimore’s ability to avoid a straight-up slugfest against Pittsburgh just slightly. While the Steelers are not some kind of impenetrable force, allowing them to hang around past the third quarter is pure hell for any team, hence the need for a gamebreaking wide receiver.
7. Green Bay Packers (11–6)
Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Last week’s result: lost to Chicago, 24–22
This week: at Philadelphia
My initial thought on Green Bay’s matchup with the Eagles is that Philadelphia’s defensive line is going to dictate this one. The Packers are going to try and control the game with Josh Jacobs, prodding for the soft spot they can dependably exploit. But we have seen more than a few games this year in which Jalen Carter and, by extension, Jordan Davis, are unblockable. I’ll be there Sunday and plan to park my binoculars on the line of scrimmage and remain there.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 13
Last week’s result: beat New Orleans, 27–19
This week: vs. Washington
Full of good vibes after pushing Mike Evans into NFL history, the Buccaneers go from barely winning a horrifying game against the interim-led Saints to dangerously rollocking into the postseason. This team, let us not forget, has a serious résumé with victories over Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington and a 40-burger on the Chargers. I wrote earlier in the season that they are absolutely a Super Bowl darkhorse and I stand by that take.
9. Los Angeles Rams (10–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Last week’s result: lost to Seattle, 30–25
This week: vs. Minnesota
The Vikings are clearly a more talented team, but I do wonder what happens now that the Lions have basically dared more teams to play Kevin O’Connell’s offense with physical, in your face man coverage and blitz Sam Darnold into oblivion? The Rams defense closed the season (in games that mattered) with three straight wins allowing under 10 points.
10. Los Angeles Chargers (11–6)
Last week’s ranking: No. 11
Last week’s result: beat Las Vegas, 34–20
This week: at Houston
Ezekiel Elliott is now a member of the Chargers, and while I would normally dismiss this as insignificant, Jim Harbaugh seems to have a certain magic to him when his offense is stockpiled full of physical backs capable of wearing an opponent down. The Texans are one of the best rush defenses in the NFL, but can the Chargers still play a ball-control game and win?
11. Washington Commanders (12–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 9
Last week’s result: beat Dallas, 23–19
This week: at Tampa Bay
One of the great unknowns heading into the playoffs, the Commanders finish a first season under Dan Quinn wholly revitalized. Though this season hinged on some massively good fortune, the Commanders are talented enough offensively to keep up in a shootout—something we’ve seen the Buccaneers cut loose on several times this year.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (10–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 8
Last week’s result: lost to Kansas City, 29–10
This week: at Baltimore
The Steelers have limped to the finish line in each of the last two seasons, this year going from 10–3 to 10–7 before hitting the playoffs. While it’s hard to picture this team finding another gear offensively with this current set of personnel, the mysticism of Mike Tomlin comes from an ability to generate massive, gutting turnovers in big spots. Their familiarity with Baltimore could yield a few opportunities.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (9–8)
Last week’s ranking: No. 12
Last week’s result: beat Pittsburgh, 19–17
I’ll echo many of my colleagues in saying that the Bengals letting go of Lou Anarumo is one of those unfortunate side effects of the business. Anarumo is a good defensive mind who took a job that not many people wanted and helped elevate this team to Super Bowl caliber. Now, of course, Zac Taylor will face the full brunt of criticism in a high-stakes 2025 season that must feature a Bengals playoff run.
Last week’s ranking: No. 14
Last week’s result: beat Kansas City, 38–0
This week: at Buffalo
While we’ll wait and see how the Chiefs sitting on their hands against the Broncos helps them in the long run, I am almost certain that a fun, high-scoring behind whipping of a division rival (no matter its circumstances) bodes well for Denver in the playoffs. Buffalo is a tough place to play, but this team is in full wild-card mode and I’m ready to buy in.
15. Houston Texans (10–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 15
Last week’s result: beat Tennessee, 23–14
This week: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Another year, another iteration of the Houston Texans playing at 3:30 p.m. ET on a Saturday in the playoffs. Congratulations to all who celebrate. While I’m not optimistic about their chances against a more physical Chargers team, this game is an ideal palate cleanser that does not, in any way, feature a B-level starting quarterback who we have to talk ourselves into watching.
16. Seattle Seahawks (10–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 18
Last week’s result: beat Los Angeles Rams, 30–25
The divorce between Seattle and Ryan Grubb needed to happen. While Grubb was an inspired hire and I loved the idea that he could bring a Washington-style tempo to the NFL game, the reality is that his rush offense didn’t measure up to other NFL programs. Some of the team’s best rushing performances seemed almost coincidental instead of resulting from well-designed plans.
17. Miami Dolphins (8–9)
Last week’s ranking: No. 17
Last week’s result: lost to New York Jets, 32–20
While there seems to be a bit of an exodus afoot in Miami with both Tyreek Hill and Jalen Ramsey perhaps pushing for the exits, sometimes we’ve seen this become a blessing in disguise. Tua Tagovailoa needs legitimate competition on the roster, but allowing Mike McDaniel to cook with a younger roster full of malleable parts doesn’t sound too bad to me.
18. Indianapolis Colts (8–9)
Last week’s ranking: No. 21
Last week’s result: beat Jacksonville, 26–23
Like the Giants bringing back Brian Daboll, Indianapolis deserves credit for staying the course with another bright young playcaller in Shane Steichen. While the Colts’ offense was subject to plenty of debate this year—especially in terms of Anthony Richardson and the team’s responsibility to develop him—it’s hard to argue that there were not some really special play designs that created excellent opportunities for both Richardson and Joe Flacco. You start there and figure out the rest.
19. Atlanta Falcons (8–9)
Last week’s ranking: No. 20
Last week’s result: lost to Carolina, 44–38
Now that Bill Belichick is back in school, it’s impossible for us to juxtapose what he’s doing there versus what Raheem Morris is doing in Atlanta. But I do wonder what will happen next season if the Falcons again fail to make the playoffs and whether we will wonder what could have been. This was a very, very uneasy eight-win season, with Morris having a great deal more experience and talent than Art Smith’s regime from the year prior. To only improve by one win and cede ground to the Panthers is troubling to say the least.
20. Arizona Cardinals (8–9)
Last week’s ranking: No. 19
Last week’s result: beat San Francisco, 49–24
Jonathan Gannon has gone from four surprising wins to eight expected wins and a positive point differential. Now, it will be interesting to see if the Cardinals fall into the pseudo Texans trap, which is the belief that everything ascends on some kind of neat and tidy schedule and the only way to push the cart along is with some kind of noisy free agent acquisition. The Cardinals have a legitimate shot at winning the NFC West next year should they improve yet again, and it’s hard to ignore the fact that this roster seems to be aging ideally. If they could find themselves a defensive interior this offseason, we’re cooking with gasoline.
21. San Francisco 49ers (6–11)
Last week’s ranking: No. 16
Last week’s result: lost to Arizona, 47–24
I made this point about the Rams a few years back and I’ll make this point about the 49ers right now: during a down season for a great team, it’s the perfect time to poach their assistants. There’s less of a line and there’s probably three or four coaches on that staff who could ably call plays somewhere in the NFL next season and wind up becoming head coaches.
22. Dallas Cowboys (7–10)
Last week’s ranking: No. 22
Last week’s result: lost to Washington, 23–19
Jerry Jones said of Mike McCarthy possibly interviewing for other jobs that he’d like a coach who wants to be in Dallas. McCarthy, I’m sure, would also like to know whether he’s wanted in Dallas so he could go about securing employment for 2024 after coaching on a one-year contract with a bizarrely late end date. I used to work for a place that indifferently allowed folks to hit the end of their contracts in a bit of panic before addressing them. While big money football coaching is a bit lower stakes given that everyone involved can afford food and gas money, it’s still disrespectful.
23. Chicago Bears (5–12)
Last week’s ranking: No. 24
Last week’s result: beat Green Bay, 24–22
Word out of Chicago is that the Bears want a Captain America type tough guy who can come in and whip this roster into shape. No more procedural issues. No more clock management mistakes and a staff that will keep Caleb Williams from whirling around the field like an unbonded atom (is that a thing?). I continue to keep an eye on the likes of Mike Vrabel, Ben Johnson, Brian Flores and coaches of that ilk.
24. New York Jets (5–12)
Last week’s ranking: No. 31
Last week’s result: beat Miami, 32–20
We end the Jets’ very sad 2024 timeline with a glimpse of what could have been had Woody Johnson not freaked out and fired Robert Saleh for losing to the Vikings by a touchdown in London. You know, the 14-win Vikings. One of the best teams in the NFL. One can be sure he’ll get this next one right.
25. New Orleans Saints (5–12)
Last week’s ranking: No. 27
Last week’s result: lost to Tampa Bay, 27–19
Cam Jordan posted on X that Darren Rizzi did a bunch with a little during his time in New Orleans. And while I’d like to see Rizzi be considered for the full-time head coaching job, the Saints know they have to pivot. David Shaw, the former Stanford coach, is a very interesting candidate along with Aaron Glenn. Despite the obvious issues in New Orleans, this team can still wind up with a big name that momentarily solves the crisis of fan indifference.
Last week’s ranking: No. 25
Last week’s result: beat Atlanta, 44–38
There’s nothing that should warm our hearts more than Bryce Young pulling a Steph Curry on Sunday in a huge upset of the Atlanta Falcons—a team with a playoff game on the line. Young has been through it during his time in the NFL, left for dead by a meddling owner before, miraculously, David Tepper got the head coaching hire right this time. Dave Canales can now add Young to his fix-it list of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Quite a résumé.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars (4–13)
Last week’s ranking: No. 28
Last week’s result: lost to Indianapolis, 26–23
Keeping Trent Baalke has to be one of the more stunning decisions made by an owner of late. Shad Khan praised Baalke’s handling of most of the other facets of the operation—you know, the kinds of things that could be handled by an owner. The Jaguars, it seems, still have some distance to travel before they hit bottom amid what should be a frantic push to fix Trevor Lawrence.
28. New England Patriots (4–13)
Last week’s ranking: No. 29
Last week’s result: beat Buffalo, 23–16
I thought Robert Kraft followed the stunning firing of Jerod Mayo with at least a little bit of refreshing accountability. Most billionaires are simply going to plow through a press conference like this one. Kraft admitted what most of us were thinking: Mayo was set up to fail and discarded for the sure thing. I eagerly await the Mike Vrabel (or in a very strange world, Ben Johnson) press conference.
29. New York Giants (3–14)
Last week’s ranking: No. 26
Last week’s result: lost to Philadelphia, 20–13
The Giants made the right move to retain Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen Monday. Ignoring the screaming of a few fans, it was never going to hurt to give Daboll a crack with a real veteran quarterback of his choosing and another high first-round draft pick. As evidenced by a lot of other teams holding on to their coaches—we’re at just five vacancies right now—many teams viewed this coaching class as top heavy with a back end full of coaches who could use some more seasoning. If it doesn’t work out? The Giants will likely have a high draft pick the following year with a better QB class on tap.
30. Las Vegas Raiders (4–13)
Last week’s ranking: No. 23
Last week’s result: lost to Los Angeles Chargers, 34–20
The Raiders are most certainly taking their time letting the world know what becomes of Antonio Pierce. But count me among those curious to see what he does with a bit more of a runway. Pierce struggled to find his identity this season in terms of a game manager, but his veteran heavy staff could have more time to click this offseason and yield something interesting.
31. Tennessee Titans (3–14)
Last week’s ranking: No. 32
Last week’s result: lost to Houston, 23–14
The Titans have not made any changes as of this moment, but that doesn’t mean all is well in Nashville. As we noted in a recent Black Monday preview column, the Titans are barreling toward a new stadium and the need to have a showpiece team that’ll help fill it. I suppose that can start with the No. 1 pick, but much like when the Titans found themselves in the Marcus Mariota/Jameis Winston draft, there may not necessarily be a fix-all option. Difficult times are ahead for Brian Callahan.
32. Cleveland Browns (3–14)
Last week’s ranking: No. 30
Last week’s result: lost to Baltimore, 35–10
The Browns wind up the season in dead last because, well, it seems they certainly wanted to be. Landing at the No. 2 pick makes for an interesting offseason, though I don’t see that pick as a massive trade-up destination for a QB-needy team. It’s also hard—at this very moment—to envision the slot producing a franchise quarterback. But with Deshaun Watson needing additional time to recover from his Achilles injury alongside the reality that the Browns would be thrilled to be done with him, having a high pick is better than not having a high pick.
