Baseball never saw anything quite like the Yeli & Belli Show of 2019. Christian Yelich of the Brewers, then 27, and Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers, 23, played a game of statistical H-O-R-S-E within a season that made for exciting baseball and amusing national TV ads. They finished first and second, respectively, in slugging and OPS, but it was Bellinger who won the MVP over Yelich, the ’18 MVP.
In amazing displays of five-tool prowess, Yelich and Bellinger slashed better than .300/.400/.600 with at least 44 homers and 15 stolen bases. It marked the first season in which two players so young reached those levels. Only four players under 27 preceded them: Babe Ruth (1921), Willie Mays (’55), Ken Griffey Jr. (’93) and Chipper Jones (’99).
Walking in the footsteps of first-ballot Hall of Fame giants, Yeli and Belli seemed destined for greatness. The traditional prime years of a ballplayer still lay ahead.
Just two seasons later, Yelich and Bellinger are two of the biggest enigmas in baseball. Rarely have players crashed so far and so fast. Since the start of the 2020 season, 210 players have taken 500 plate appearances. Yelich (.234) ranks 177th in batting and Bellinger (.195) ranks 205th.
What happened to Yelich and Bellinger? Can the back-to-back, Yeli-to-Belli MVPs get back to where they were in 2019?
To answer those questions, I took deep dives into their descent from four perspectives: historical, physical, analytical and mechanical. Here is what happened to the Yeli & Belli Show—and if we will ever see it again.
A good hitter with Miami (.290/.369/.432), Yelich broke out with two huge seasons after his trade to Milwaukee (.327/.415/.651), where he especially thrived at home. Yelich slugged .699 at home and .569 on the road over those seasons.
In those two seasons, Yelich became the first player to reach 80 homers and 50 stolen bases in age 26–27 seasons. Dropping the thresholds to 70 homers and 40 steals to find like players at that age with such power and speed, you get Dale Murphy, Sammy Sosa, Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero and Alfonso Soriano. All remained productive through their 30s except Murphy, who hit .234 and declined rapidly after his last good year at 31.
What His Health Tells Us…
Yelich broke his right kneecap in September 2019. In ’21, he missed three weeks with a sore back, came back to play one game, then missed another two weeks with the same back ailment. His back has troubled him since his days in the minor leagues.
Brewers president David Stearns said at the end of last season, “Clearly he wasn’t right this year, and he wasn’t right last year, either. There may be different reasons in each of those two years why we couldn’t quite get it going, but it should be a priority for the organization.”
What the Metrics Tell Us…
Yelich lost the ability to consistently hit the ball in the air.
Launch Angle
Ground Ball %
Exit Velocity
2019
11.3
42.8%
93.3
2020
7.1
51.6%
94.0
2021
2.8
55.7%*
91.0
Stearns is correct that there are different primary reasons for the decline in the past two seasons. In 2020, Yelich hit the ball harder than he did in ’19, but he was too passive. His swing rate declined from 45.2% to 34.6%, most curiously when the count was in his favor, from 50.2% to 40.2%. Maybe it was partly due to the strange season with empty stands caused by COVID-19.
The 2021 season shows more cause for alarm. Yelich stopped squaring up the ball:
Highest Increase in Pct. Of Topped Balls, 2020–21
Gio Urshela, Yankees
13.1%
Mark Canha, A’s
11.4%
Christian Yelich, Brewers
10.8%
Yelich also lost 3 mph in exit velocity, tied for the fourth-worst decline.
What the Video Tells Us…
Loss of exit velocity, like loss of fastball velocity for a pitcher, often is a red flag for injury (Matt Chapman, minus-3.9 mph last year, tied for worst in MLB) or decline (Brett Gardner, minus-3.2; Gregory Polanco, minus-3). Yelich lost his explosiveness because of his back injury.
Take a look at Yelich at the pitcher’s release point from 2019 and ’21—against Tyler Beede on the left and Zack Wheeler on the right. Both pitches will be fastballs down the middle.
The major difference is in Yelich’s spine angle. In 2019, he is in a much more coiled position. I’ve drawn an orange line from the “M” logo of his batting helmet straight down. The bend in his spine angle keeps his head over his knee and the ball of his foot, just as it should be—the perfect “ready” balanced, athletic position of someone playing defense in basketball, waiting for the return of service in tennis, addressing a golf ball or lining up for man coverage against a receiver.
Look at that same orange line in 2021. The spine angle is more upright. The head is behind the knee. The center of gravity is farther back. He is standing in the same spot in the batter’s box, but his head is farther from the hitting zone. He is not as balanced. He's leaning back even before he starts his swing. As with a golf swing, if you begin off balance you fight to get balanced throughout the swing.
